Nigeria Election: PDP, Leadership Newspaper opinion polls give Buhari victory over Atiku
London,Feb. 15, 2019 (AltAfrica)-In less than 24 hours to Nigeria’s crucial presidential election, two separate opinion polls are predicting victory for the incumbent Nigerian president, Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressive Congress, APC, party.
Most bizarre, one of the poll was sponsored by the main opposition party in Nigeria, the Peoples’ Democratic Party, PDP and the other by a leading Nigeria’s newspaper, Leadership Newspaper. Though the result of the polls were very close, President Buhari’s APC would still image victorious according to most respondents who participated in the opinion polls
Leadership Newspaper reports that a recent reports from Ballard partners, an international company hired by PDP to evaluate and determine PDP chance of winning by asking indigenes in certain areas in the country random question about their view on the current government and the candidate they will most likely vote for in the forthcoming general election shows that the incumbent president has a far better chance of retaining his position as the national Head.
According to the paper , the field interview which was carried out between January 3, 2018 and February 2, 2019 shows that Buhari is leading the vote with 9 points (51% / 42%). Undecideds are at 4% and all other will score a total of 3%. This leave Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate for PDP and his team with more than enough work to do.
On the other hand, an online opinion poll by Leadership Newspaper itself is predicting a 17% lead for president Buhari over his main challenger, former vice president Atiku Abubakar.
The ongoing online poll is asking a single question “Which party, candidate would you vote for president in the 2019 general election” And of the 10, 809 respondents who have participated in the poll as at the time of this report, 5, 704, representing 53% indicated their willingness to vote Buhari and APC while 3,901, representing 36% preferred Atiku of PDP
While other candidates and party polled a pattry 687 or 6% of the votes, those who are not willing to vote constitute only 5% or 517 respondent.
Below is the overall report of the PDP sponsored opinion poll (Source: Leadership Newspaper)
1.Buhari is leading the vote with 9 points (51% / 42%). Undecideds are at 4% and all other will score a total of 3%. So, Buhari cannot be stopped.
2.Voters generally approve of how Buhari has been handling his job and have positive view towards him.
3.Voters generally do not like Atiku because of the corruption issues around him. Poor for Buhari, middle class for Atiku – but poor are the majority.
4.Many people are disappointed with the choice they have: 19% of PVC holders said they don’t see the reason to vote.
5.No other candidate is going to get up to 2%. About 87% of APC supporters endorse Buhari, but only 71% of PDP supporters endorse Atiku. South-South and South-East which were supposed to be the Atiku’s regional strongholds, are not as much negative towards Buhari as where expected.
1.Interviews were carried out in the field between January 3, 2018 and February 2, 2019.
Data collection method: face-to-face interviews.
2.Sample size: 12 654 interviews with an average of 342 in each state and FCT.
3.The overall margin of error is ±0.87% at 95% confidence level (±1.1% at 99% confidence level).
4.Sample stratification: 3-level geographical stratification according to the official INEC data of voters distribution with random selection of households and respondents.
5.In each state not less than 250 respondents were interviewed, afterwards the data were weighted according to the voters distribution.
6.Dropout of the respondents: only those who have voters card were interviewed.
7.Interviews: native to the state in which they were working or neighbouring state with the same dominant language; each one had two training sessions and test task.
8.Figures may not sum to 100% due to rounding up.