London, Jan. 1, 2019 (AltAfrica)-This year 2019 will be the scene of fierce battles for accession to power in major African countries. From the DRC to Nigeria, via Libya or South Africa, an overview of the main African electoral issues of 2019?

DRC: the end of the Kabila era?

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is probably the country whose election news will attract the most attention in the world over the next few days. If the senatorial elections of the country are to be held on March 6, 2019, it is mainly the presidential elections, initially scheduled for December 23, 2018, which will crystallize the attentions.

While Joseph Kabila, who has led the DRC with an iron fist since 2001, will not run again, new actors have positioned themselves on the political scene of the Central African country.

On the one hand, a coalition born of a rapprochement between the president of the Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC) Vital Kamerhe, and the candidate of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) Felix Tshisekedi, wants the main opponent of the regime in place.

Moses Katumbi supports the candidate Martin Fayulu.

Lamuka’s coalition of candidate Martin Fayulu has also announced his intention to run for the presidency of the country. This despite its weakening following the withdrawal of Felix Tshisekedi and Vital Kamerhe from the Geneva agreement, signed last November. The candidate remains supported by two heavyweights of Congolese politics: Jean-Pierre Bemba and Moïse Katumbi. The member’s recent actions and statements to position himself on the national political scene suggest that he could play spoilers in the next election.

Finally, the surprise actor of the next election campaign in the DRC, the former Minister of the Interior Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, is dubbed by Joseph Kabila and all the power in place.

The date of December 23, which seemed more and more illusory, has again been postponed, this time for December 30. 

While the three main contenders for the title seem determined to make every effort to achieve their goal, observers question the country’s ability to hold crucial elections, postponed several times in the past. The date of December 23, which seemed more and more illusory, has again been postponed, this time for December 30.

If she saw an opposition candidate getting the most votes, and the outgoing power accepting her defeat, this election would become the first democratic transition in the country of Lumumba. But for the moment, the main challenge remains to hold these elections in acceptable conditions, without violent disputes or bloodshed. 

Nigeria: the tribulations of Muhammadu Buhari

Despite a mixed record and a shaky health, “the incorruptible” Muhammadu Buhari announced his intention to seek a new term in 2019.

At 75, President Muhammadu Buhari who, against all odds, managed to be reappointed as a candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the presidential election on February 16, should face former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. 

The latter, who slammed the door on the APC in December 2017, joined the opposition Democratic People’s Party (PDP) where he won the primaries to represent former President Goodluck Jonathan’s party in the next election.

Atiku Abubak, a serious opponent. 

After a wave of heavy defections in his party, experts agree that the next election is far from being played in advance for President Buhari.

In any case, whatever the winner, it is an enormous economic, social and security site that awaits the president of the most populous country in Africa, the continent’s leading economic power.

Tunisia: Act 2 of the Democratic Renewal

At the end of 2019, it will be Tunisia’s turn to elect its next President of the Republic. If this presidential election, the twelfth in the history of Tunisia promises so important, it is first because it is only the second presidential election by universal suffrage, free and democratic of the country, since the revolution of jasmine. Thus, it will be for the Tunisian people to show that it has retained the achievements of 2011, and that it is part of the circle of democratic countries, which is an exception in the Arab world.

On the other hand, this election is all the more important as the Tunisian population expects a rapid improvement in the country’s economic situation.

On the other hand, this election is all the more important as the Tunisian population expects a rapid improvement in the country’s economic situation. 

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Indeed, since the fall of former President Ben Ali, successive governments have failed to recover an economy plagued by sluggish growth, rampant inflation and a high unemployment rate (15.4%). % of the labor force in the second quarter of 2018).

Prime Minister Youssef Chahed.

Even though some key sectors of the economy are enjoying a relative improvement, as tourism has risen by 40.5% over the first eleven months of the current year, the country’s main macroeconomic indicators are still far from being green.

If he decides to run again, the current president, Beji Caïd Essebsi (92), will first have to federate the opinions within his own party Nidaa Tounès, weakened by a power struggle between his own son, Hafedh Caïd Essebsi , and Prime Minister Youssef Chahed. This even before facing his direct opponent, the Islamist-inspired party Ennhada. 

South Africa: baptism of fire for Cyril Ramaphosa

2019 is also the year when Africa’s most industrialized economy will experience one of the most important elections in its history.

The African National Congress (ANC) will now have to go out of their way to win back voters who are disappointed by the many corruption scandals that have shaken the country.

Weakened by the calamitous mandate of its former leader, President Jacob Zuma, the largest political party in South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) will now have to go out of their way to win back voters disillusioned by the many corruption scandals. which shook the country. Headed by the new President Cyril Ramaphosa, Nelson Mandela’s historic party wants to restore its image.

Cyril Ramaphosa will try to stop the decline of popularity of the ANC.

For that, it will still have to deal with the party of the Democratic Alliance, the main opposition party whose votes could increase in a context of loss of confidence of South Africans to the ANC. If the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party of Julius Malema, has shown that it was favorable to the reforms of Cyril Ramaphosa, the latter will still have to convince an electoral base which expects concrete reforms in a country where the unemployment rate reaches the 27.2%.

Libya: the end of the crisis?

Traversed by unprecedented chaos, following the fall of former Libyan leader Muammar Al-Gaddafi in 2011, Libya could, from 2019, break out of the spiral of insecurity and the economic slump mired.

Originally scheduled to take place on December 10, 2018, the country is finally expected to have a real presidential election next year, as agreed after talks organized by the international community, between the various actors of the crisis. , including General Khalifa Haftar, and Fayez El Sarraj, the president of the presidential council (recognized by the UN).

Fayez El Sarraj and General Khalifa Haftar.

This election should be preceded by a referendum on a new constitution, which must be approved by an absolute majority in each of the three historical regions of the country (Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica) and collect a minimum of two thirds of the votes at the national level, in accordance with a constitutional amendment passed on November 26, 2018 in the House of Representatives of Tobruk.

Libya could, from 2019, get out of the spiral of insecurity and the economic slump where it got bogged down.

If it succeeds in holding itself in optimal conditions, this election will mark a great blow in the implementation of the plan of economic, social, political and security recovery of the country. (Ecofin Hebdo)